Saturday, November 1, 2008

T-minus 3 Days and Counting: What a Long Strange Trip It's Been

This presidential campaign has been remarkably long - 21-plus months - the longest in US history. In retrospect, it's no surprise why the political season started in three months after the 2006 mid-term congressional elections: George W. Bush.

The 2006 election cycle was primarily a repudiation of Bush's handling of the Iraq War. At that time, we had lost nearly 3,000 soldiers with many thousands more wounded, with no end in sight, and increasing doubt about the premise of why we invaded in the first place. Silent whispers of "Vietnam" turned into audible concerns throughout the country and Bush demonstrated that he was tin earred.

The Democrats gained 32 seats in the House and 6 Senate seats. Momentum was on their side and the Republican party's once rock-solid infrastructure was beginning to show cracks. The Bush Administration's actions and revelations (sweetheart no-bid contracts to Haliburton and others, tapping into ordinary American's phone calls and emails - a blatant and clear violation of the Fourth Amendment, the unprecedented and egregious rescinding of Habeas Corpus, and the complete disregard for the Geneva Conventions) only weakened their position further. The Democrats, who had been in the minority since 1994 (see: Contract With America) had regrouped and took advantage of the Republican weakness.

More importantly however, the key factor was the difference in the quality of the candidates running for the presidency. Using a baseball analogy, the Democrats bullpen was much stronger than the Republicans. Hillary Rodham Clinton was the favorite of any candidate, regardless of party. I didn't feel that the Republicans had anyone near her caliber - even McCain, I felt, was inferior to her. Other Republican candidates like Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul (though he has garnered interest as being one of the few conservatives to denounce the war) and Tom Tancredo seemed like sway-backed fillies that were added to suggest a semblance of race for the Republican nomination.

I had seen Obama's keynote address delivered at the Democratic Convention in 2004, and was thoroughly impressed back then. And when he announced his candidacy, I had my doubts that he could compete against Clinton's significant advantages in money and organization. Still, I was impressed with his message and insight. I also felt that Clinton's achilles heal was her name: Americans either loved her or flat out despised her.

Throughout the entire campaign, it has been eminently clear that Americans wanted a change in direction from the Bush debacle, and it was McCain's and Obama's job to define that course change.

I think McCain had several factors working against him even prior to 9/15 (the economic meltdown): His campaign was in complete disarray to the point of near disintegration prior to the New Hampshire primaries. And while he was able to pull things together, it cost him significantly both in terms of finances and people. He also had the unfortanate disadvantage of being Republican at a time when the mood of the American people had soured on the party. He couldn't distance himself from Bush for fear of alienating the base, and he desparately needed the evangelical wing of the party if he stood any chance of winning the election. It was a Hobson's Choice at a time when he needed to find a way to build a clear firewall between himself and Bush. Add to that, many in the party weren't enamoured by McCain anyway.

But McCain's true disadvantage (and clearly the Republican Party's also) was Obama's unprecedented organizational and financial strength coming from individuals rather than large donors. Obama's ground game - field offices virtually everywhere, a massive army of volunteers, and most importantly, the millions of small donations (under $100) via the internet - is awe inspiring (you might want to call this: polical shock and awe). Even with an Electoral Vote map that favored Republicans, the GOTV (get out the vote) effort turned a significant Republican advantage into a liability.

The election will be over in three days. And after nearly two years, I think that most of us will be relieved, regardless of who we voted for. It's been a long political season, and we all need a break from political rhetoric.

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